uncertainty

Uncertainty: Einstein, Heisenberg, Bohr, and the Struggle for the Soul of Science
$14.95
I enjoyed reading this book about the recent history of physics and the developments on atoms and quantum mechanics. It doesn't go into detailed physics allowing to uderstand the general ideas without any struggle. The undertanding of the motivations and the incredible scientific value of Einstein, Bohr, Eisenberg,... is one of the best things of the book. To understand how Eisenberg changed the way we undertand the world twice before 26 creates a feeling of wonder and deep respect for this kind of people.

Embracing Uncertainty: Breakthrough Methods for Achieving Peace of Mind When Facing the Unknown
$15.99
Human life has always involved much uncertainty, and our current circumstances are no exception (post 9/11 terrorism risk, financial crises, pathogen pandemics, political instability, intensified globalization, etc.). In this book, Susan Jeffers proposes that we can not only learn to live with uncertainty, but we can even embrace it by seeing the positive in it.

As I understand it, her main idea is that, rather than fearing the unknown future and rigidly expecting particular outcomes, we should instead focus on and appreciate the positive aspects of the present (remaining aware that death can come at any time), while approaching the future with an open-minded and flexible sense of wonder and adventure, guided by a uniquely individual and intuitively discerned "higher purpose" within a "grand design." And when the going sometimes gets really tough (as it surely will), we should try to maintain a degree of non-attachment, have confidence that we can cope, aim to learn and grow from these difficult experiences, and accept that perhaps things are happening the way they are for a meaningful reason.

These are fairly standard self-help ideas (with much borrowed from Eastern philosophy), but they're still solidly good ideas, and it's helpful to bring them together in the specific context of dealing with uncertainty. Moreover, Jeffers also suggests many practical exercises for people to try, which is vitally important since ideas need to be translated into action in order to make a real difference in people's lives.

Highly recommended for people who find value in (good) self-help books.

Reasoning about Uncertainty
$30.00
This book guides you through formal systems useful for reasoning about uncertainty. If you've ever wondered about the rationale for probability theory or for ways to overcome its limitation, this is the book for you.

The author made an effort to make the book as self-contained as possible (a remarkable achievement given what it covers), so this book is very clear. The examples are short, but illuminating and motivating, so this book is interesting. The author always tries to justify why the axioms of a theory were chosen a certain way, so this book is insightful.

Even if you have just a passing interest in probability theory, I highly recommend this book. It will not only give you reasons for the definitions in probability theory, but also powerful alternative (and often complementary) ways of reasoning about uncertainty.

Uncertainty: A Guide to Dealing with Uncertainty in Quantitative Risk and Policy Analysis
$46.00
I work in the mining industry and most activities which are carried out in the mining industry involve an element of risk. Decisions must be made in a climate of uncertainty and the outcome is dependent on circumstances & events that in many cases are simply beyond the control of the decision-maker. The subjects of uncertainty and risk are thus highly topical in the mining industry today. This book is an excellent starting point for geologists and engineers who wish to get to grips with the conceptual and philosophical basis of uncertainty assessment as well as a sound source of information about the specifics of modeling and other techniques.

The authors use of the word 'policy' should not be a deterrent: this is a fundamentally technical book. They use the word policy to mean '...to evaluate, order and structure incomplete knowledge so as to allow
decisions to be made with as complete an understanding as possible of the current state of knowledge, its limitations and its implications'.

The book is set out logically and comprises:

1. An overview including philosophical frameworks, an extended discussion of the nature, types and sources of uncertainty, and an introduction to the required probability and statistical theory (Ch. 1-4);
2. A good summary of the state of research about 'human judgments of uncertainty' and performance of probability assessments (Ch. 6-7). The psychology of uncertainty assessments, notions of subjectivity,
methods of evaluating subjective risk scores, and discussion of the role of 'experts' are covered well. Readers interested in these topics might also want to obtain James Reasons' book 'Human Error' (1990,Cambridge University Press; ISBN 0 521 31419 4).
3. Two chapters on technical tools and approaches. Ch. 8 covers the propagation and analysis of uncertainty, and the following chapter gives good guidance on the graphical presentation of uncertainty.
4. Ch. 10 & Ch. 11 present discussion of large, complex policy models and some specific guidance on software,& are probably least interesting to a mining audience.
5. The final chapter (Ch. 12) is entitled 'the value of knowing how little you know' and includes presentation of methods for establishing the expected value of including uncertainty (EVIU).

The book is clearly written, well-informed and extensively referenced. It's a bargain.