prediction

Prediction: Science, Decision Making, and the Future of Nature
$40.00
The idea that predictive science can simplify the decision-making process by creating a clearer picture of the future is deeply appealing in principle, but deeply problematic in practice.Prediction offers a fascinating and wide-ranging look at the interdependent scientific, political, and social factors involved in using science-based predictions to guide policy making. Through ten detailed case studies, it explores society's efforts to generate reliable scientific information about complex natural systems and to use that information in making sound policy decisions. The book: provides an overview of predictive science from historical, scientific, political, and behavioral perspectives offers case studies of the use and misuse of scientific predictions on subjects ranging from asteroids to nuclear waste disposal proposes a practical analytical framework for the use of predictive science in setting policy recommends actions and policies that can increase the likelihood of effective decisions Contributors include Clark Chapman, Charles Herrick, William H. Hooke, Orrin Pilkey, Steve Rayner, Naomi Oreskes, Daniel Metlay, Stanley Changnon, Donald Gautier, Robert Moran, Joanne Nigg, and Thomas Stewart.Prediction is the first book to look at the numerous and varied scientific, social, and political factors involved in making and using predictions relevant to a wide range of current environmental controversies and challenges. It provides much-needed context for understanding predictions and scientific pronouncements, and is an important work for anyone concerned with interactions between science and policy making.

Prediction, Learning, and Games
$73.00
This important new text and reference for researchers and students in machine learning, game theory, statistics and information theory offers the first comprehensive treatment of the problem of predicting individual sequences. Unlike standard statistical approaches to forecasting, prediction of individual sequences does not impose any probabilistic assumption on the data-generating mechanism. Yet, prediction algorithms can be constructed that work well for all possible sequences, in the sense that their performance is always nearly as good as the best forecasting strategy in a given reference class. The central theme is the model of prediction using expert advice, a general framework within which many related problems can be cast and discussed. Repeated game playing, adaptive data compression, sequential investment in the stock market, sequential pattern analysis, and several other problems are viewed as instances of the experts' framework and analyzed from a common nonstochastic standpoint that often reveals new and intriguing connections. Old and new forecasting methods are described in a mathematically precise way in order to characterize their theoretical limitations and possibilities.

The Future of Everything: The Science of Prediction
$18.95
This was the first book I read on my new Kindle and I must say it was an electronic page-turner. It is unique in the way the author provides an extensive history of prognostication and highlighted the realms of human activity where prediction themes have common threads; weather, health, and economics. What I liked most of about the book was the way the author was able to cogently present the counter intuitive concept that the more tools we develop to attempt to predict the future, the more muddled prediction becomes. More granularity required to make finer predictions results in simply more sources of error.

Despite the consistently terrible track record of prognosticators from ancient times until the present, we are our leaders continue to base decisions impacting many people on what now is the contemporary equivalent of Taro Cards. As Orrell writes "There is a curious disconnect between the consistent inaccuracy of the forecasts and the confidence with which politicians, banks, and business leaders regularly use to make important decisions".

The book share some of the same themes with "Useless Arithmetic: Why Environmental Scientists Can't Predict the Future" by Orrin Pilkey which is also worth reading. The take home message is just because you can reduce things to numbers does not make them objective and true. Mathematical models can in some sense imitate the past but that does not mean they can predict the future.

My only disappointment is that the author appears to be genuinely conflicted by his conclusions. The final chapters of the book deal with the mother of all predictions, that being global warming. All the limitations identified in all other predictive models clearly apply to climate models. However, Orrell appears to be hesitant in being as pointedly critical of these models as he is of models of economic and short term weather forecasting. Perhaps I can understand his hesitancy given that well meaning critics of the science of climate change have been accused of being the equivalent of Holocaust deniers.

Brookstone Weathercast Wireless 5-day Forecaster
$75.00
This was great while it worked! We had it for about a year, and all of a sudden it stopped getting updates. Looking at reviews here, I fear it may never get an update again.